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What are the odds!!!!!

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What are the odds!!!!!

Postby Lefty » 04 17, 2018 •  [Post 1]

After Swedes post and knowing that my nephews draw Utah elk was 1: 128 as a resident and saw nonresident Utah archery elk draw was 1:173
What odds and how many points are you willing to put in for and how many years are you willing to wait?
We put in for once in a lifetime moose draw 1:13 for each of us in the family. I figure we would eventually draw :P and I do have points in Wyoming.
The Unit I first hunted in Montana has been mostly an every other year draw for over 20 years .
What odds are you willing to put in for elk,.. or other game ?

Im sure there are some crazy odds out there for some big game animals

Anyone putting in for the possible grizzly hunts?
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Re: What are the odds!!!!!

Postby saddlesore » 04 17, 2018 •  [Post 2]

I waited 21 years for a trophy elk hunt and16+ for a moose ( I had a .05 % chance of drawing that).Finally settled to put in for a cow moose as I was never going to draw a bull tag.

The only "maybe" tag I put in for is cow ML tag where there are 100 tags and about 125 applications. I have drawn that tag for about 6 years in a row. My 2nd choice is always a sure thing though. Other than that, I don't put in for draws that are not 100% sure . I'm too darn old to build points and can't look forward enough to plan any hunts two years from now. :lol:
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Re: What are the odds!!!!!

Postby SoCo Mark » 04 17, 2018 •  [Post 3]

As a Colorado resident, I have 12 points and am wishing I would've never got into the game. I still hunt every year, but if I had a slam dunk draw that gave me a really good chance at a cow every year I'd burn my points in a minute and hunt cows the rest of my life. My area used to be as close to a sure thing for a cow as it comes, but times change. If it returns to it's former glory or I stumble onto somewhere else, and I can be fairly sure to draw a cow tag every year, I'd make the switch immediately. I'm really considering putting my 12 points in for a cow tag in an area like 76 or 61.. I'm certain to draw, and I hear there are lots of elk in both areas.

I've got one decent bull on the wall and I honestly don't see what the fuss is about concerning antlers. But, that's just me.
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Re: What are the odds!!!!!

Postby Navesgane » 04 17, 2018 •  [Post 4]

I don't mind the waiting game, as long as the $ invested (or lost in the gamble/point) isn't too crazy. I figure if I play the game for sheep, moose & goat for 10-15 years and draw one male tag of either, I'll be content. As for elk, I think there's plenty of OTC and easy to draw tags that provide good opportunities, maybe not trophy ones, but good enough to keep me happy.
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Re: What are the odds!!!!!

Postby Beendare » 04 19, 2018 •  [Post 5]

I think its important for a guy to study all of the western states draw systems and develop a strategy in 2-3 states.

Unless you have the dough to kick down $30k a year in applications...best to concentrate in a few states...and them learn some OTC areas.
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Re: What are the odds!!!!!

Postby ishy » 04 21, 2018 •  [Post 6]

I should be 100% for Utah after 16 years. I really shouldn't be playing the draw game on my budget, but I have invested too much at this point to back out. I have been donating plasma to compensate some beyond my regular income. One thing about Utah is you have to have a license to apply, but they are good for 365 days not a calendar year. So you only have to buy one every other year if you pay attention to dates. So it only costs $33 a year to apply. I was okay waiting, but my dad at 77 is starting to look like even being in camp could be harder each passing year. So after looking at higher quality units I had a moment of clarity about what is really important to me and put in for a lesser quality unit that I could share points with a great friend and still have 100% odds. I also have friends that have drawn the unit the last 2 years, so with limited money and time I knew this year would probably be my best bet with great recent information. Both hunters said it was the best hunt they've been on. Even a lower end LE tag can be heads and shoulders above the OTC units we usually hunt (my usual North Idaho Unit % success was 2% in 2016 to give you an idea). I am a meat hunter, but would like to have at least one wall hanger. I have even bigger aspirations for my buddy than me. He is over 60 now and is a 10% that kills elk every year. He has a couple 300-310 bulls, and it would mean the world to me to help him get a good bull.
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Re: What are the odds!!!!!

Postby Joe Schmo » 04 22, 2018 •  [Post 7]

I’m not willing to wait. I’ll go hunting and it’ll be awesome. Measuring you hunt by measuring the animal is BS, a guided 400” bull is worth about as much as a unguided 3x4 raghorns...probably less. I’m talking able bodied people that consider themselves hunters.
Measuring is a way to look at these limited hunts and rightly so. I’m willing to wait but at some point I recommend that people actually do the numbers...it can be absurd. A few folks actually pushed me to putting in for NV a few years ago and I came up with this...it’s be several thousands of dollars until I could have a reasonable chance at drawing so it might be 20 years and 5 grand before I drew...literally NOT WORTH THE ODDS. I could shoot a bigger buck/bull for less money and get to hunt every third year OTC it that timespan...whatever it may be.
Also I have points in WY and CO (6-9)...I’m well aware that the quality of a hunt I’d draw now is basically the same for eternity...maybe it’ll get worse over time but thinking that someday adding 10/20/30 points to my 8 Oregon deer points or 9 Wyoming deer points or 7 Colorado elk points will get me the best hunt in the state is utter ignorance...so someday I’ll go on a decent hunt in these states and enjoy the hell out of it.
I feel horrible for people/kids that be all like “where should I start building points”...the answer for the most part is “you shouldn’t”.
Lastly, I really don’t mind giving money to state game agencies...ok I kinda don’t like giving it to WA and OR but there’s plenty of good people out there working for those states that I’d like to think my money supports them a little bit to.
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It’s a rant that kinda started out ugly but there might be something useful in here :)
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